No returns: Mega-IPOs and the promise of AI as economic measurement
Mega-IPOs, the convergence of public and private markets, and the case for a new approach to financial measurement.
Writing
The decisions behind quantitative work: choosing models, evaluating experiments, reproducing results and understanding the opportunities and uncertainty introduced by AI.
Mega-IPOs, the convergence of public and private markets, and the case for a new approach to financial measurement.
AI in finance plays three distinct roles — a tool for financial practice, a source of economic change, and a means of measurement — and each demands different evidence.
Language models read individual companies remarkably well; the harder question, as Markowitz taught finance, is what that information means together inside a portfolio.
A reproducible result is not a folder of code. It is a dependency structure connecting data, assumptions, transformations, software, environments, and outputs.
AI has expanded what can be measured in finance. It has also expanded the space of plausible-looking mistakes: a note on scale, validation, and methodological discipline.
Analytical results change when data, policy rules, assumptions, and software change. A practical note on preserving vintages so historical results stay reconstructable.
A practical account of treating model structure as markup and token-specific adaptation as a feature-selection problem.
An experiment-analysis perspective on commercial impact beyond a single average treatment effect.
Design choices behind an applied-AI API and the infrastructure around it.
An introduction to finding useful structure without task-specific labelled examples.