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Marcus Gawronsky

Writing

Working notes on research, software, and evidence

The decisions behind quantitative work: choosing models, evaluating experiments, reproducing results and understanding the opportunities and uncertainty introduced by AI.

Kalman filter on a local-level modelA hidden random walk, drawn as a dashed line, is observed 60 times with noise. The Kalman filter updates its estimate after each noisy observation; the solid line is the filtered estimate and the shaded band is its two-standard-deviation interval, which narrows to a steady width as the filter converges.Observed · filtered · latentQ/R = 0.1t = 1t = 60
Kalman filterNoisy observations → a filtered estimate of the latent state
Pricing Perspective

No returns: Mega-IPOs and the promise of AI as economic measurement

Mega-IPOs, the convergence of public and private markets, and the case for a new approach to financial measurement.

Pricing Perspective

What are we actually studying when we study AI in finance?

AI in finance plays three distinct roles — a tool for financial practice, a source of economic change, and a means of measurement — and each demands different evidence.

Pricing Perspective

Do language models in finance need a Markowitz moment?

Language models read individual companies remarkably well; the harder question, as Markowitz taught finance, is what that information means together inside a portfolio.

Pricing Perspective

Reproducibility is a Graph

A reproducible result is not a folder of code. It is a dependency structure connecting data, assumptions, transformations, software, environments, and outputs.

Pricing Perspective

The Tidal Wave of AI Research in Finance

AI has expanded what can be measured in finance. It has also expanded the space of plausible-looking mistakes: a note on scale, validation, and methodological discipline.

Pricing Perspective

Vintage Reproducible ET Tax Models

Analytical results change when data, policy rules, assumptions, and software change. A practical note on preserving vintages so historical results stay reconstructable.

Hugging Face

Models are Markup, Tokens are Features

A practical account of treating model structure as markup and token-specific adaptation as a feature-selection problem.

Solenya

Beyond Average Revenue

An experiment-analysis perspective on commercial impact beyond a single average treatment effect.

Solenya

Architecting Solenya API V1

Design choices behind an applied-AI API and the infrastructure around it.

Solenya

What is Zero-shot Discovery?

An introduction to finding useful structure without task-specific labelled examples.