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Marcus Gawronsky

Research

Measuring the economic structure behind financial risk

Company information describes what businesses do. Financial markets record how securities behave. This research connects the two, using language models and statistical methods to measure economic peers, shared risk and strategic competition.

Principal component analysis of a point cloud120 two-dimensional points form an elongated cloud tilted about 36 degrees. The first principal component runs along the cloud and explains 91% of the variance; the second, perpendicular to it, explains 9%. The cloud then rotates so the first component is horizontal and each point drops onto it, reducing two dimensions to one.120 embeddingsExplained variancePC1 91%PC2 9%
Principal componentsMany observed dimensions → few principal directions

Representations

What does company information reveal? Language models turn news and disclosures into comparable representations of business activities and risks.

Relationships

Which firms are economically connected? Optimal transport and statistical models identify information-based peers and shared financial exposure.

Decisions

What can be learned when return histories are incomplete? Models connect economic differences to portfolio risk, with explicit assumptions and limitations.
Applied artificial intelligenceCausal inferenceInformation geometryQuantitative financeReproducible research
2026Preprint; accepted for World Finance & Banking Symposium, Riga (2026)

Information Games: Strategic Crowding and Firm Repositioning in Language-Model Space

Marcus Gawronsky · Chun-Sung Huang

The question: How does competition change firms' responses to opportunity in language-model space?

arXiv

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Method index

Where each idea appears

The same ideas recur across papers, software, writing and figures. Follow one method to everywhere it appears in the work.

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